real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (82.6% posterior, +43.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1341%/day and dominates. Net +0.1335%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | +21.5 | Consumer Discretionary | 97.6 | — | 52% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +9.0 | Financials | 31.0 | 2.15 | 40% | Robinhood’s Crypto Slump Got the Headlines. Its 10x Business Got Ignored.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| NBIS | +8.3 | Communication Services | -76.9 | — | 81% | Stock Market Today, Aug. 12: Nebius Group Surges on Massive Revenue GrowthFwd P/E < 15UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| WEN | +7.6 | Consumer Discretionary | 15.8 | 0.96 | 54% | Why Wendy's Stock Blasted Almost 15% Higher TodayPrice > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| PLTR | +7.6 | Information Technology | 77.4 | 2.41 | 72% | Michael Burry Is Short Nebius and Palantir. Both Are Now Soaring and His Short Thesis Looks Broken.profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | RDDT | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +7.2 (3 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | JOBY | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -6 but undervalued |
| 4 | WU | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 5 | UBER | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +6.2 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 7 | NBIS | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.3); Accelerating velocity +3.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.7); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 42.7% over 260 scored calls (lower bound 36.8%), average net alpha -0.244%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| WEN | +17.8 | 5 | Why Wendy's Stock Blasted Almost 15% Higher Today |
| UBER | +6.2 | 2 | Uber partners with China's Pony.ai for 2,000 robotaxis in Europe |
| COIN | +5.6 | 3 | Coinbase establishes its tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi, with Financial Services Permission from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) |
| NBIS | +3.8 | 4 | Stock Market Today, Aug. 12: Nebius Group Surges on Massive Revenue Growth |
| HOOD | +3.8 | 3 | Robinhood’s Crypto Slump Got the Headlines. Its 10x Business Got Ignored. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ONON | -5.6 | Premium Sneaker Brand On’s Stock Tumbles Amid Push to Keep ‘Full Price’ Power |
| APP | -4.4 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| WU | -3.7 | Western Union's LatAm strategy faces fintech pressure |
| CBRS | -3.2 | AI Chipmaker Cerebras Says Core Revenue Jumped 103% In Q2 |
| ACN | -3.1 | Accenture Stock Trades At A Discount While The Company Buys Its Growth |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +130 | +640 | +2,728 | |
| Information Technology | +154 | +592 | +861 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -102 | +380 | +2,106 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -28 | -2 | +48 | |
| Communication Services | -6 | -124 | -378 | |
| Health Care | -38 | -168 | -244 | |
| Utilities | -32 | -190 | -842 | |
| Industrials | -18 | -228 | -576 | |
| Consumer Staples | -56 | -276 | -723 | |
| Real Estate | -42 | -306 | -1,662 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +42 | -318 | -1,317 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +122.3 | +367 | |
| Inflation | +98.2 | +66 | |
| Stock Market | +52.7 | +60 | |
| Cloud Computing | +33.8 | +62 | |
| Financial Regulation | -9.3 | -8 | |
| Data Centers | -9.3 | +6 | |
| Interest Rates | -14.2 | -16 | |
| Tariffs | -20.3 | -25 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.66% (80% band -1.93% to +1.61%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 48% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.57% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.50% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.60% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.11 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.82 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.79 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.77 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.68 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.64 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.63 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.62 | 1.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.57 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 521 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,741 |
| Daily average | 1,348 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.15× |
| Total in corpus | 154,990 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.