real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.83% ± 5.22% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.54 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (84.0% posterior, +43.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1352%/day and dominates. Net +0.1346%/day.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +35.9 | Communication Services | 18.3 | 1.03 | 35% | Online forum Reddit will join the influential and closely tracked S&P 500 indexprofitable |
| CAVA | +16.4 | Consumer Discretionary | 101.0 | — | 57% | Cava's Stock Surges After Q2 Results. Is Now the Time to Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| NBIS | +11.7 | Communication Services | -91.2 | — | 89% | Bank of America resets Nebius stock price target after 454% surgeFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| WDAY | +11.5 | Information Technology | 15.8 | 0.72 | 64% | BMO Capital reiterates Workday stock rating on strong market positionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Price > Analyst Target |
| HOOD | +9.3 | Financials | 30.3 | 2.15 | 37% | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Interactive BrokersprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RDDT | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 36.1); Accelerating velocity +32.4 (11 mentions/12h); CIO meta-model current selection; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | SKHY | LONG | 44.1% | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.33 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | GEV | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | WEN | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +9.4 (3 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | OCUL | LONG | 41.7% | -0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 6 | WDAY | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.6); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | CAVA | LONG | 42.6% | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.40 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 16.5); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 8 | NBIS | LONG | 42.1% | -0.21 | -0.46 | -1.08 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 11.8); Accelerating velocity +15.0 (7 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Engine hit rate 43.2% over 264 scored calls (lower bound 37.3%), average net alpha -0.219%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) experienced a significant price plunge following earnings, signaling a market rejection of its valuation and a fundamental disconnect between AI hype and actual execution.
2026-08-13 12:40A tempered outlook due to underwhelming running-shoe sales in a high-multiple growth stock is a fundamental valuation reset catalyst rather than a temporary dip.
2026-08-13 00:13Safety concerns regarding Vykat in a biotech pipeline are fundamentally bearish catalysts as they increase regulatory risk and probability of clinical failure, outweighing speculative 'blood in the streets' buying opportunities.
2026-08-12 13:10A massive 17% jump following a blowout earnings beat suggests strong momentum and pricing power, but conviction is capped by the potential for 'sell the news' profit-taking and macro travel spending risks.
2026-08-10 10:50Nielsen's $2.15 billion takeover of DoubleVerify is a major bullish catalyst, but the stock will likely trade at a discount to the offer price due to deal risk and the correctness of the pre-announcement run-up.
2026-08-08 12:21The announcement of a cash buyout to take the company private is a primary catalyst for price convergence toward the offer price, though conviction is tempered by the M&A arbitrage spread and potential 'sell the news' dynamics.
2026-08-08 11:40Datadog's 19% plunge as a leader of the software sector slide suggests systemic risk and valuation reset rather than a temporary dip, signaling a high probability of continued downward pressure.
2026-08-08 05:11A price collapse following an earnings beat is a classic institutional distribution signal, indicating that the 'beat' was likely priced in or based on a lowered bar, suggesting a further downward trajectory.
2026-08-07 22:02The withdrawal of guidance and dividend slash signals a fundamental breakdown in cash flow visibility and management credibility, outweighing any 'blood in the streets' recovery narrative.
2026-08-07 14:53A 28% plunge following earnings is a violent confirmation of structural failure and fundamental devaluation rather than a temporary overreaction.
2026-08-06 21:46Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | +32.4 | 11 | Online forum Reddit will join the influential and closely tracked S&P 500 index |
| NBIS | +15.0 | 7 | Bank of America resets Nebius stock price target after 454% surge |
| WEN | +9.4 | 3 | Why Wendy's Stock Blasted Almost 15% Higher Today |
| GEV | +6.4 | 2 | Should Investors Take Profits in GE Vernova After Its Big Run? |
| OCUL | +5.0 | 2 | Stifel reiterates Buy rating on Oculis stock, $40 target |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| ACN | -5.1 | Why Accenture (ACN) Lost Its Place in This Portfolio |
| APP | -3.4 | APP Stock Alert: AppLovin's Latest Downgrade Sends Clear Signal on Growth Trajectory |
| CBRS | -3.3 | Target Stock Flies To New Highs As Earnings Approach, But Walmart Stuck In Neutral |
| WU | -2.8 | Western Union's LatAm strategy faces fintech pressure |
| OSCR | -2.7 | Why Did Oscar Health (OSCR) Fall After Record Profit and a Guidance Hike? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | +129 | +685 | +2,660 | |
| Information Technology | +128 | +596 | +814 | |
| Energybearish reversal | -67 | +365 | +2,072 | |
| Materialsbearish reversal | -28 | -9 | +74 | |
| Communication Services | -3 | -121 | -338 | |
| Health Care | -26 | -164 | -228 | |
| Industrials | +1 | -190 | -530 | |
| Utilities | -40 | -229 | -826 | |
| Consumer Staples | -52 | -271 | -692 | |
| Consumer Discretionarybullish reversal | +28 | -286 | -1,322 | |
| Real Estate | -66 | -378 | -1,686 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +74.8 | +49 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +69.0 | +325 | |
| Stock Market | +45.0 | +55 | |
| Oil Prices | +26.8 | +76 | |
| Financial Regulation | -9.0 | -8 | |
| Tariffs | -11.2 | -16 | |
| Cryptocurrency | -11.5 | +2 | |
| AI Bubble | -13.2 | -15 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 50% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +0.62% (80% band -1.80% to +1.48%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 52% |
| Variance risk premium | +2.1 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.56% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.49% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.57% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.06 in-sample / 0.13 OOS, worst 0.06) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.82 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.79 | 1.7h | ELEVATED |
| M&A | 0.64 | 1.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.58 | 1.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.56 | 1.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.45 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,163 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,702 |
| Projected close of day | 1,632 |
| Daily average | 1,353 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.11× |
| Total in corpus | 155,632 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.