real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.96% ± 5.18% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.57 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (88.4% posterior, +41.4%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1365%/day and dominates. Net +0.1378%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +4.1 | Financials | 65.9 | — | 19% | Falkirk vs Rangers: BTTSExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| ULTA | +2.9 | Consumer Discretionary | 16.8 | 1.88 | 34% | Ulta Beauty Climbs 4%, e.l.f. Beauty Rises 5% as Post-Earnings Selloff Reversesprofitable |
| MRNA | +2.3 | Health Care | -30.7 | — | 76% | Moderna Led the S&P 500 in August as Edison International SankFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10Price > Analyst TargetUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| HOOD | +2.3 | Financials | 32.0 | 2.49 | 46% | Uniswap Price Prediction: Rally to $9 Possible as Robinhood Chain Stats Get HotterprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SAIC | +2.3 | Information Technology | 11.7 | — | 77% | This Federal Contractor Stock Jumps After Earnings. It’s Becoming a Government Darling.profitableFwd P/E < 15Price > Analyst Target |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKHY | LONG | 52.2% | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.76 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.6); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | S | LONG | 45.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +5.6 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Earnings in 2d — event risk inside hold window |
| 3 | KURA | LONG | 48.8% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.49 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 53.2% | -0.22 | -0.51 | -1.28 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.0); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | MRNA | LONG | 34.3% | -0.26 | -0.50 | -0.74 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.0); Accelerating velocity +10.8 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 6 | COIN | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Accelerating velocity +8.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 7 | BE | LONG | 20.2% | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.95 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); Accelerating velocity +14.4 (5 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
Engine hit rate 43.3% over 342 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.223%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | +3.8 | 3 | Falkirk vs Rangers: BTTS |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| PINS | -3.9 | Why is Pinterest stock sliding today? |
| RIVN | -3.8 | GE Vernova Slides 3%, Vertiv Holdings and Eaton Sit Out the Selloff: Is the Rivian CFO Handoff Still Driving the Drawdown? |
| PYPL | -3.5 | PayPal just lost its $53 billion safety net |
| MLCO | -2.5 | Melco Resorts stock hits 52-week low at 5.07 USD |
| HQY | -1.4 | Why HealthEquity Stock Sank This Week |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financialsbearish reversal | -64 | +729 | +2,183 | |
| Information Technology | +13 | +536 | +1,933 | |
| Energybreakout | +240 | +242 | +933 | |
| Materials | +2 | +72 | +331 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +18 | +36 | -152 | |
| Health Carebullish reversal | +8 | +28 | -29 | |
| Industrials | -23 | +11 | -297 | |
| Consumer Staples | -6 | -43 | -624 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -22 | -303 | -985 | |
| Utilities | -75 | -441 | -1,091 | |
| Real Estate | -92 | -869 | -2,201 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +161.0 | +161 | |
| Economic Growth | +28.8 | +28 | |
| M&A | +17.8 | +33 | |
| Bond Market | +15.0 | -10 | |
| Monetary Policy | -47.8 | -64 | |
| Interest Rates | -95.7 | -231 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -99.3 | -107 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -179.5 | +138 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.2104% is worse than the 0.8718% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.4% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 46% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.3 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.43% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.56% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.84 | 1.5h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.78 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.59 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.57 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.56 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.51 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.51 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 110 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,242 |
| Projected close of day | 670 |
| Daily average | 1,334 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.98× |
| Total in corpus | 177,357 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.