real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.90% ± 5.19% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.56 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (85.6% posterior, +40.6%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1303%/day and dominates. Net +0.1319%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +9.6 | Financials | 31.9 | 2.37 | 45% | Morgan Stanley Just Upgraded Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD). Here’s WhyprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| PLTR | +5.3 | Information Technology | 75.8 | 2.49 | 68% | Palantir CEO Alex Karp backs ousted Ukraine defense minister's new defense tech startupprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| COIN | +5.0 | Financials | 62.4 | — | 15% | Coinbase And Webull Join Forces In CanadaExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ESTC | +3.1 | Information Technology | 23.3 | 1.37 | 76% | Elastic Beat and Raised Guidance. Wall Street Says One Quarter Isn’t Enough.profitableEV/EBITDA < 10 |
| OKTA | +2.9 | Information Technology | 37.1 | 1.37 | 89% | Okta Stock Just Got a New Street-High Price TargetprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | LONG | 64.2% | -0.24 | -0.58 | -1.26 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | KDP | LONG | 40.0% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +4.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 3 | ESTC | LONG | 42.0% | -0.30 | -0.56 | -0.55 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.1); Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | COIN | LONG | 56.4% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -0.85 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.1); Accelerating velocity +5.6 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 5 | OKTA | LONG | 37.7% | -0.24 | -0.53 | -0.85 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.9); Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | KALU | LONG | 40.9% | -0.45 | -0.66 | +0.13 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 7 | WPM | LONG | 37.4% | -0.45 | -0.66 | +0.13 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 8 | S | LONG | 29.4% | -0.33 | -0.56 | -0.23 | Accelerating velocity +6.4 (2 mentions/12h) |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | +6.4 | 2 | SentinelOne’s ARR Guidance Just Moved From Low- to Mid-Single Digits. Scotiabank Says That’s the Real Signal. |
| COIN | +5.6 | 3 | Coinbase And Webull Join Forces In Canada |
| ESTC | +5.0 | 2 | Elastic Beat and Raised Guidance. Wall Street Says One Quarter Isn’t Enough. |
| OKTA | +5.0 | 2 | Okta Stock Just Got a New Street-High Price Target |
| KDP | +4.0 | 2 | Keurig Dr Pepper to sell stake – and factory – to Chobani |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| PYPL | -2.8 | PayPal Stock's Real Risk Is Not How Far It Falls |
| PINS | -2.4 | Pinterest CFO exit puts spotlight on growth |
| CPRI | -2.0 | Capri Holdings stock hits 52-week low at 13.0 USD |
| ENR | -1.8 | Why is Energizer stock crashing today? |
| RIVN | -1.7 | CFO Turnover at AT&T, Caterpillar, and Pfizer Sparked Rallies. Here’s Why Rivian’s Didn’t. |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +465 | +952 | +1,595 | |
| Financials | +11 | +589 | +1,984 | |
| Information Technology | +108 | +483 | +2,075 | |
| Materials | +37 | +136 | +362 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +50 | +110 | -76 | |
| Health Care | +57 | +105 | +60 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +26 | +19 | -579 | |
| Industrials | -37 | -29 | -331 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -166 | -493 | -1,185 | |
| Utilities | -179 | -657 | -1,294 | |
| Real Estate | -369 | -1,219 | -2,611 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +128.5 | +159 | |
| Digital Assets | +19.8 | +44 | |
| Tokenization | +19.8 | +36 | |
| FinTech | +19.3 | +40 | |
| Bond Market | -101.7 | -132 | |
| Inflation | -107.5 | -196 | |
| Bond Yields | -124.7 | -130 | |
| Interest Rates | -405.5 | -586 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.2227% is worse than the 0.828% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 10.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 47% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.42% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.17 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.96 | 1.9h | CRITICAL |
| Oil & Gas | 0.93 | 1.6h | CRITICAL |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.70 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.65 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.57 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.56 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.48 | 0.4h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 836 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,178 |
| Projected close of day | 1,583 |
| Daily average | 1,338 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.17× |
| Total in corpus | 179,261 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.