real time stock market sentiment dashboard
A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login, no sign-up.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.91% ± 5.20% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.56 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (84.8% posterior, +40.9%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1301%/day and dominates. Net +0.1316%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | +9.4 | Financials | 32.5 | 1.81 | 48% | What Makes Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as an Attractive Bet?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| UBER | +7.9 | Information Technology | 17.4 | 6.38 | 30% | Delivery Hero board backs Uber $14.8 billion takeover bidprofitableExpensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| PLTR | +6.1 | Information Technology | 73.2 | 1.73 | 62% | Jim Cramer Explains Why Palantir’s Rule of 40 Dominance Proves Bears WrongprofitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| SPOT | +5.1 | Communication Services | 31.1 | 1.54 | 46% | Charts show Spotify shares could soon break out, Frank Cappelleri saysprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| COIN | +5.0 | Financials | 64.3 | — | 14% | Coinbase Brings Crypto Futures to Canadian TradersExtended FWD P/EUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | LONG | 57.4% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.2); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | COIN | LONG | 58.4% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.0); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 3 | RDDT | LONG | 35.6% | -0.32 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | ESTC | LONG | 40.7% | -0.32 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | KALU | LONG | 36.8% | -0.44 | -0.67 | +0.18 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 6 | SPOT | LONG | 32.7% | -0.23 | -0.54 | -0.81 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.2); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | ASTS | LONG | 26.6% | -0.32 | -0.56 | -0.20 | Accelerating velocity +8.8 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 8 | HOOD | LONG | 29.4% | -0.23 | -0.60 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.5); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 44.0% over 366 scored calls (lower bound 39.0%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: incumbent.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03A $10.2B share placement for AI funding is a significant equity dilution event that the market is currently pricing as a high-risk capital expenditure rather than a strategic growth catalyst.
2026-08-25 05:23A $600M equity offering represents massive dilution and a signal of liquidity stress, which the market is already pricing in via a 12% drop and sympathetic sector-wide declines.
2026-08-24 13:52The release of 319 million shares creates a massive supply overhang that outweighs the theoretical valuation floor, transforming the IPO mark into a hard ceiling and triggering a liquidity crunch.
2026-08-23 23:20The market is valuing the company based on revenue streams that are being actively terminated, creating a massive valuation gap and a high probability of a significant downward correction.
2026-08-21 06:57Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | +8.8 | 2 | AST SpaceMobile Stock Soars on New Buy Call |
| UBER | +7.2 | 5 | Delivery Hero board backs Uber $14.8 billion takeover bid |
| SPOT | +7.0 | 3 | Charts show Spotify shares could soon break out, Frank Cappelleri says |
| RDDT | +6.0 | 2 | Reddit Rallies 7% as Baird Says Renewal Risk Is Already Priced In, Pinterest Holds Flat |
| UPS | +5.0 | 2 | UPS launches new global operating model, revamps exec roles |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| SNOW | -3.6 | Snowflake Drops 4% Before Its Earnings Report, Datadog Falls 6%: Is the Software Selloff the Real Story? |
| MTD | -2.6 | Redburn starts Mettler-Toledo at Sell, sees valuation outpacing growth |
| EXEL | -2.6 | Cancer Stock Breaks Out To Highs; Key FDA Action On Watch |
| QS | -2.4 | QuantumScape Is Down 96% From Its High. Is 2027 Finally the Solid-State Battery Year? |
| BROS | -2.3 | Why Dutch Bros Stock Fell 26% in August |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +471 | +1,090 | +1,738 | |
| Financials | +10 | +596 | +2,036 | |
| Information Technology | +156 | +488 | +2,082 | |
| Materials | +56 | +138 | +371 | |
| Health Care | +50 | +124 | +67 | |
| Communication Servicesbullish reversal | +50 | +124 | -84 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +30 | +26 | -565 | |
| Industrials | -41 | -56 | -345 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -179 | -544 | -1,238 | |
| Utilities | -194 | -708 | -1,357 | |
| Real Estate | -411 | -1,282 | -2,704 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +83.8 | +126 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +44.7 | +312 | |
| FinTech | +25.2 | +44 | |
| AI Infrastructure | +19.0 | +27 | |
| Bond Market | -80.5 | -115 | |
| Inflation | -100.3 | -186 | |
| Bond Yields | -154.2 | -160 | |
| Interest Rates | -384.7 | -578 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 191 | 81 | |
| healthcare policy | 175 | 67 | |
| financial regulation | 152 | 69 | |
| transport mobility | 149 | 65 | |
| geopolitics | 144 | 82 | |
| monetary policy | 127 | 70 | |
| agriculture food | 121 | 68 | |
| banking | 110 | 68 | |
| education skills | 107 | 66 | |
| energy policy | 72 | 71 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Short-term | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 876 | — | — |
| Increased global defense spending driven by geopolitical instability and conflict. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 846 | — | — |
| Acceleration of the transition to renewable energy for national energy security. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||||
| BLK | BlackRock | 818 | — | — |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 634 | — | — |
| Major bank with compressed net interest margins due to extended low-rate environment from stable core inflation policy. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 518 | +6.1 | aligned |
| AI-driven data analytics for conflict monitoring and early warning systems defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, industrial policy | ||||
| DE | Deere & Company | 476 | — | — |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, geopolitics, trade policy | ||||
| MSCI | MSCI Inc | 475 | — | — |
| Provides risk management and governance indices used by institutional investors to monitor regulatory compliance. banking, financial regulation | ||||
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc | 474 | — | — |
| Provides regulatory compliance data and analytics tools for financial institutions banking, financial regulation, oil and gas | ||||
| MUFG | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group | 454 | — | — |
| Large Japanese bank exposed to Bank of Japan monetary base and liquidity operations. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||||
| HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 427 | — | — |
| Faces significant capital expenditure to modernize legacy back-office systems to meet new regulatory and speed standards. banking, financial regulation, monetary policy, trade policy | ||||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news. Where a name also has a current sentiment score, both are shown: aligned means they point the same way, diverging means one horizon has not caught up with the other.
Geopolitical volatility and climate crises drive demand for defense and resilient infrastructure
1. Heightened geopolitical tensions and sanctions evasion increase state spending on national security and cybersecurity. 2. Intensifying climate disasters necessitate investment in disaster recovery, adaptive infrastructure, and renewable energy to ensure resource independence. 3. The shift toward multipolarity encourages the diversification of supply chains and a move away from centralized global trade dependencies
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, renewable energy infrastructure, climate adaptation technology
More exposed: global shipping and logistics, traditional property and casualty insurance, centralized global trade hubs, fossil fuel exporters in sanctioned regions
Named: LMT, PANW, NEE, SREN, MAERSK-B
What would break this: A sudden shift toward comprehensive global diplomatic cooperation or a breakthrough in climate mitigation technology that drastically reduces disaster frequency would invalidate the thesis.
Credit expansion and strict RBI compliance drive demand for RegTech and cybersecurity
Accelerated credit growth (16.5%) increases transaction volumes, which inherently raises the operational risk profile of banks. The RBI's use of monetary penalties for KYC lapses creates a mandatory incentive for banks to shift from manual to automated compliance systems. Furthermore, the specific focus on cooperative bank governance and cyber-fraud mitigation opens a modernization window for legacy institutions to a
Better placed: RegTech providers, Cybersecurity firms, Digital identity verification services, Core banking software vendors
More exposed: Legacy-dependent commercial banks, Under-capitalized cooperative banks, Manual KYC processing services
Named: TCS, INFY, HDB, IBANK
What would break this: A significant contraction in credit growth or a pivot by the RBI toward lenient enforcement would reduce the urgency and budget for compliance spending.
Supply chain resilience drives domestic manufacturing shift
Trade policy embedding economic security prioritizes supply chain transparency and forced labor eradication (e.g., Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act), reducing reliance on opaque global networks. This pressures China-dependent sectors while benefiting resilient, domestically oriented supply chains for critical goods like semiconductors. Non-capitulatory US-China strategies accelerate nearshoring trends.
Better placed: resilient supply chains, domestic semiconductor manufacturing, ethical sourcing compliance
More exposed: China-dependent manufacturing, labor-intensive apparel, complex global sourcing
Named: INTC, TER, NKE
What would break this: Policy reversal toward free-trade agreements or weak enforcement of forced labor regulations reducing supply chain disruption pressure
Humanitarian and security sectors benefit from escalating conflicts and climate disasters
Documented evidence shows rising attacks on civilian infrastructure (hospitals in Ukraine/Haiti) and accelerating climate disasters (Nepal floods, sea-level rise). This drives demand for humanitarian logistics to deliver aid amid conflict disruptions, security services protecting critical infrastructure, and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Conversely, sectors reliant on stable supply chains (oil/gas E&P) face oper
Better placed: humanitarian aid logistics, infrastructure security services, disaster-resilient power grid
More exposed: oil/gas exploration & production, agricultural supply chains, civilian infrastructure operators
Named: DPSTF, LMT, SI, CVX, ADM
What would break this: If global conflict de-escalates rapidly or climate mitigation efforts significantly reduce disaster frequency, demand for security/humanitarian services would decline.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Humanitarian access pressures boost security and monitoring sectors
The trend highlights weaponized maritime chokepoints, drone attacks on civilians, and AI-driven weapons as threats to humanitarian access. This increases demand for secure aid delivery systems (e.g., protected logistics routes) and real-time conflict monitoring tools to avoid danger zones. Consequently, security services for humanitarian actors and AI-based monitoring platforms gain traction. Conversely, maritime shi
Better placed: Humanitarian logistics & security, Conflict monitoring technology
More exposed: Maritime shipping (chokepoint routes), Defense contractors (AI weapons)
Named: ACM, PLTR, LMT, AI
What would break this: Rapid diplomatic resolution of conflicts or failure to implement binding controls on AI weapons would reduce demand for security services and monitoring tools while alleviating pressure on defense contractors.
Regional supply chain hubs boost manufacturing and energy infrastructure
Nations are reducing reliance on single sources like China through trade policy shifts and new production capacity. Nigeria's seven-fold petroleum export surge after Dangote refinery demonstrates regional self-sufficiency in energy, indicating that regions building local capabilities (e.g., manufacturing/energy) will gain. Consequently, sectors enabling regional infrastructure development benefit, while centralized s
Better placed: Regional manufacturing infrastructure, Emerging energy infrastructure, Regional logistics networks
More exposed: China-centric export manufacturing
Named: CAT, TTE, UNP, FOXF
What would break this: Trade policy reversals or failure of new regional capacity (e.g., Nigeria's refinery) to meet export demands would undermine the trend.
Bilateral currency swaps support cross-border trade finance
RBI maintaining unchanged rates prevents increased borrowing costs for businesses, supporting stable credit conditions. Australia-China bilateral currency swap reduces FX volatility and transaction costs for direct trade between the two nations, directly benefiting financial institutions facilitating these transactions and export-oriented sectors reliant on China trade.
Better placed: cross-border trade finance, international banking services
Named: CBA.AX, WBC.AX, BHP.AX
What would break this: Global economic shock forcing rate hikes or termination of Australia-China currency swap agreement
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 88% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.2227% is worse than the 0.828% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 51% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.6 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.53% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.42% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.53% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.16 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.95 | 2.0h | CRITICAL |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.94 | 2.0h | CRITICAL |
| Bond Market | 0.84 | 3.6h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.76 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.74 | 0.5h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.65 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Retirement Planning | 0.61 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.56 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 1,268 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,178 |
| Projected close of day | 1,470 |
| Daily average | 1,331 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.14× |
| Total in corpus | 179,693 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.