A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.76% ± 5.24% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.53 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (80.2% posterior, +39.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1190%/day and dominates. Net +0.1211%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +9.1 | Industrials | 56.2 | 0.57 | 75% | Bloom Energy Is Joining the S&P 500: Is the Stock Still a Buy After Its Massive Run?profitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +6.5 | Financials | 37.1 | 2.13 | 65% | Why is Robinhood stock climbing today?profitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| IONQ | +4.5 | Information Technology | -35.7 | — | 30% | IonQ Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook Following SkyWater AcquisitionFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| TDY | +4.3 | Information Technology | 22.8 | 1.40 | 59% | Teledyne Technologies (TDY) Raises Guidance as Defense, Space and Industrial Demand Accelerateprofitable |
| ZIM | +3.9 | Industrials | 3.3 | — | 97% | Zim Integrated Shipping Shares Rise as Hapag-Lloyd Revises Takeover ProposalprofitableFwd P/E < 15P/B < 1.5Price > Analyst TargetNear 52w High |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TDY | LONG | 43.7% | -0.18 | -0.58 | -1.21 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.3); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 43.4% | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.48 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.5); Accelerating velocity +7.4 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 3 | BLKB | LONG | 42.2% | -0.48 | -0.52 | +0.10 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 4 | ZIM | LONG | 43.7% | -0.18 | -0.58 | -1.21 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); ⚠ Price > Analyst Target; Near 52w High |
| 5 | BE | LONG | 42.9% | -0.21 | -0.54 | -0.83 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 9.2); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 42.9% | -0.21 | -0.54 | -0.83 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 6.5); Accelerating velocity +3.8 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 7 | RBLX | LONG | 42.2% | -0.48 | -0.52 | +0.10 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
| 8 | IONS | LONG | 42.2% | -0.48 | -0.52 | +0.10 | Despair reversion: sentiment -4 but undervalued |
Engine hit rate 44.2% over 396 scored calls (lower bound 39.4%), average net alpha -0.173%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | +7.4 | 2 | IonQ Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook Following SkyWater Acquisition |
| BE | +6.0 | 3 | Bloom Energy Is Joining the S&P 500: Is the Stock Still a Buy After Its Massive Run? |
| HOOD | +3.8 | 2 | Why is Robinhood stock climbing today? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| RBLX | -6.1 | Roblox (RBLX) Faces a Growth Reset After Guidance Cuts — Is the Long-Term Story Still Intact? |
| PCVX | -4.8 | Vaxcyte Has $2.5 Billion in Cash and a $605 Million Half-Year Loss. Here's How to Read Its CFO's Latest Insider Filing |
| IONS | -4.4 | Ionis Pharmaceuticals Shares Fall After Pelacarsen Phase 3 Trial Misses Primary Endpoint |
| PODD | -3.2 | Artisan Sold Insulet (PODD) Due to Competition Concerns |
| REAL | -2.5 | InvestingPro Fair Value flagged RealReal before 40% decline |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +222 | +1,316 | +2,340 | |
| Information Technology | +86 | +661 | +2,262 | |
| Financials | +86 | +647 | +2,422 | |
| Materials | -0 | +128 | +412 | |
| Communication Servicesbearish reversal | -11 | +117 | +56 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -16 | +36 | +68 | |
| Consumer Staples | -17 | -119 | -572 | |
| Industrials | -86 | -225 | -476 | |
| Utilities | -43 | -623 | -1,620 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -149 | -695 | -1,576 | |
| Real Estate | -68 | -1,246 | -3,318 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | +178.2 | -70 | |
| Semiconductors | +41.2 | +70 | |
| Bond Market | +31.3 | -4 | |
| Oil Prices | +31.2 | +106 | |
| Tariffs | -22.5 | -38 | |
| Geopolitical Risk | -25.3 | -45 | |
| Market Volatility | -27.2 | -49 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -89.2 | +164 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 185 | 68 | |
| healthcare policy | 172 | 65 | |
| transport mobility | 142 | 64 | |
| geopolitics | 138 | 69 | |
| financial regulation | 138 | 73 | |
| monetary policy | 115 | 69 | |
| agriculture food | 112 | 56 | |
| education skills | 89 | 61 | |
| infrastructure | 86 | 71 | |
| banking | 80 | 63 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 527 |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 458 |
| Provides data analytics and AI software for intelligence and crisis mitigation. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| ACN | Accenture | 362 |
| Large-scale global provider of public sector consulting and government technology implementation. banking, defense security, education skills, financial regulation | ||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 308 |
| Provides grid modernization and energy management tools essential for national energy autonomy goals. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, trade policy | ||
| SAP | SAP SE | 263 |
| Enterprise resource planning software essential for digital-first corporate reporting and GenAI integration. banking, financial regulation, infrastructure, labor markets | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 256 |
| Primary supplier of advanced aircraft and missile systems for NATO deterrence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| TSLA | Tesla | 249 |
| Produces utility-scale battery storage solutions (Megapack) for grid stability. climate policy, energy policy, oil and gas, transport mobility | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 247 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, trade policy | ||
| BLK | BlackRock | 243 |
| Its Aladdin platform is a primary tool for institutional risk management amid monetary policy shifts. banking, capital markets, financial regulation, monetary policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 224 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs climate policy, geopolitics, labor markets, supply chain | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
NATO expansion and global crisis mitigation drive defense and security infrastructure demand
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of military hardware, surveillance systems, and cold-weather logistics. 2. Efforts to stabilize volatile regions (Middle East/Sudan) and combat cross-border crime increase demand for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) technologies. 3. Addressing climate-driven environmental threats requires investment in res
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity and intelligence services, arctic logistics and specialized maritime shipping, disaster response and environmental remediation infrastructure
More exposed: commercial aviation in volatile corridors, energy extraction in high-conflict zones, global supply chain logistics relying on unstable transit points
Named: LMT, BA.L, PLTR, MAERSK-B
What would break this: A sudden shift toward isolationism by key NATO members or an unexpected comprehensive peace treaty in Eastern Europe would drastically reduce the demand for deterrence-based military spending.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
RBI liquidity absorption via VRRRs likely to tighten short-term credit conditions
1. RBI uses VRRR auctions to remove excess cash from the banking system. 2. Reduced systemic liquidity typically puts upward pressure on interbank call money rates and short-term yields. 3. As banks face tighter liquidity, they may increase lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs). 4. This increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and reduces available credit for highly leveraged sectors.
Better placed: short-term debt instruments, banks with high CASA ratios, liquid fund managers
More exposed: highly leveraged corporates, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), real estate development, wholesale funding dependent sectors
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJFINANCE, DLF
What would break this: A sudden shift in RBI policy toward accommodation or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the liquidity absorption.
RBI liquidity absorption tightens monetary conditions and pressures banking net interest margins
1. The RBI uses Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to remove excess cash from the commercial banking system. 2. This reduction in systemic liquidity typically leads to an increase in short-term interbank lending rates. 3. As banks face higher costs for funding and liquidity management, their cost of funds increases. 4. If these increased costs cannot be immediately passed on to borrowers via higher loan rates
Better placed: short-duration debt funds, money market instruments, liquid fund managers
More exposed: commercial banking sector, highly leveraged corporate borrowers, credit-sensitive sectors like real estate
Named: HDB, IBN, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden influx of government spending or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts, maintaining liquidity levels.
Regulatory clarity boosts digital payment innovation and crypto compliance
Regulators are developing frameworks to foster payment innovation while extending oversight to AI-driven tools and crypto services. Australia's A2A Payments Roadmap enables real-time interoperability, UK mandates drive bank-led innovation, and HMRC reporting rules create structured crypto compliance requirements. This reduces uncertainty for compliant digital payment providers and crypto platforms that integrate regu
Better placed: real-time payment infrastructure, crypto compliance solutions, digital wallet platforms
More exposed: legacy bank payment systems, non-compliant crypto service providers
Named: PYPL, COIN, FIT, MA
What would break this: Overly restrictive regulations stifling innovation (e.g., excessive transaction fees), or global regulatory fragmentation causing compliance costs to exceed market growth potential.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 79% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.8905% is worse than the 0.4987% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.1% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 53% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.9 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.40% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.55% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.07 in-sample / 0.18 OOS, worst 0.07) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.84 | 0.9h | ELEVATED |
| Bond Yields | 0.80 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.74 | 0.6h | ELEVATED |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.68 | 2.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Monetary Policy | 0.64 | 5.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.51 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.45 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.41 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 612 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 952 |
| Projected close of day | 1,167 |
| Daily average | 1,332 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.75× |
| Total in corpus | 186,513 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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