A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.70% ± 5.30% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (74.4% posterior, +39.2%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1111%/day and dominates. Net +0.1134%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +8.0 | Industrials | 56.3 | 0.57 | 75% | Bloom Energy Delivered Power to an Oracle Data Center in 55 Days. Here's Why That Number Matters More Than the Revenue Beat.profitablePEGY < 0.75Extended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +7.6 | Financials | 34.7 | 2.13 | 60% | Robinhood Wins a New Role in the Oura IPO: UnderwriterprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
| SOFI | +3.1 | Financials | 21.9 | 0.66 | 18% | SoFi, Payward Team up to Connect Banking and Crypto MarketsprofitablePEGY < 0.75 |
| IONQ | +2.2 | Information Technology | -31.3 | — | 25% | IonQ Investor Day Unveils Superion Roadmap, SkyWater-Powered Growth StrategyFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| ARM | +2.1 | Information Technology | 85.4 | 2.07 | 46% | Arm’s Biggest Growth Driver May Not Be Smartphones AnymoreprofitableExtended FWD P/EExpensive PEGY (>2) |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOFI | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.2); CIO meta-model current selection; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
| 2 | IONQ | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.2); ⚠ UNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| 3 | ARM | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.1); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2); Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | HOOD | LONG | 44.1% | -0.18 | -0.45 | -1.14 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 7.6); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Expensive PEGY (>2) |
| 5 | BE | LONG | 42.9% | -0.21 | -0.43 | -0.75 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.1); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 6 | AFRM | LONG | 42.3% | -0.43 | -0.43 | +0.22 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 7 | IREN | LONG | 42.3% | -0.43 | -0.43 | +0.22 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; ⚠ Weak fundamentals: F-score 2/9 |
Engine hit rate 44.2% over 405 scored calls (lower bound 39.4%), average net alpha -0.166%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02The removal of a speculative buyout premium creates a vacuum in the valuation, as the stock was trading on a rumor-driven floor rather than organic fundamentals.
2026-08-29 01:21VREX is a bullish catalyst due to the acquisition by Teledyne, but the majority of the premium is likely already priced in, limiting further upside potential and now shifting the risk-reward profile to an arbitrage play rather than a a growth story.
2026-08-28 06:20While Meta's settlement caps the legal risk for the sector, the asymmetry of the balance sheet risk creates an existential threat for Snap, as any similar liability would be liquidated by a fraction of the cost Meta can absorb.
2026-08-28 04:16None
2026-08-25 18:03Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| BE | +6.0 | 2 | Bloom Energy Delivered Power to an Oracle Data Center in 55 Days. Here's Why That Number Matters More Than the Revenue Beat. |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BRZE | -6.0 | Why is Braze stock down 11% today? |
| UBER | -3.9 | Uber tries to leave a key market |
| BHVN | -2.1 | Biohaven stock downgraded at RBC Capital Markets (BHVN:NYSE) |
| DOCS | -2.1 | DOCS Downgraded by Freedom Capital Markets -- Price Target Raised to $27.00 |
| WIX | -1.8 | Wix Stock Drops 4.6%—What Its 17.7% Four-Day Slide Is Pricing In |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +314 | +1,147 | +2,517 | |
| Financials | +104 | +732 | +2,408 | |
| Information Technology | +136 | +682 | +2,364 | |
| Materials | +9 | +109 | +420 | |
| Communication Servicesbearish reversal | -3 | +74 | +81 | |
| Health Carebearish reversal | -26 | -31 | +71 | |
| Consumer Staples | -42 | -174 | -578 | |
| Industrials | -146 | -324 | -558 | |
| Utilities | -61 | -515 | -1,646 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -208 | -722 | -1,719 | |
| Real Estate | -76 | -981 | -3,361 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Prices | +87.2 | +151 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +84.3 | +317 | |
| Interest Rates | +77.2 | -95 | |
| FinTech | +29.0 | +51 | |
| Geopolitical Tension | -19.2 | -47 | |
| Employment | -21.8 | -3 | |
| Market Volatility | -28.8 | -46 | |
| Inflation | -58.5 | -119 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| defense security | 177 | 68 | |
| healthcare policy | 158 | 64 | |
| geopolitics | 143 | 71 | |
| financial regulation | 141 | 76 | |
| transport mobility | 142 | 64 | |
| agriculture food | 112 | 56 | |
| monetary policy | 105 | 69 | |
| infrastructure | 88 | 75 | |
| trade policy | 87 | 82 | |
| education skills | 84 | 60 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 587 |
| Provides data analytics used by governments for sanction tracking and geopolitical intelligence. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 526 |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| ACN | Accenture | 429 |
| Large-scale global provider of public sector consulting and government technology implementation. banking, defense security, education skills, financial regulation | ||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 396 |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 332 |
| Increased military support for Ukraine and allies drives demand for advanced weaponry. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||
| SAP | SAP | 296 |
| Enterprise software used by banks to consolidate financial data and manage regulatory reporting. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 279 |
| Increased reliance on North American rail for resilient, regionalized supply chains. energy policy, infrastructure, monetary policy, trade policy | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 269 |
| Increased domestic infrastructure spending and reshoring of factories drive demand for heavy machinery. climate policy, geopolitics, labor markets, supply chain | ||
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | 255 |
| Increased state-sponsored cyber threats drive demand for endpoint protection and threat intelligence. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||
| TSLA | Tesla | 249 |
| Produces utility-scale battery storage solutions (Megapack) for grid stability. climate policy, energy policy, oil and gas, transport mobility | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Trade protectionism drives domestic reshoring while pressuring globalized supply chain dependencies
1. Tariffs and anti-dumping measures increase the cost of imported goods, making domestic alternatives more price-competitive. 2. Geopolitical restrictions force a strategic shift from 'just-in-time' global sourcing to 'just-in-case' regional or domestic sourcing. 3. To mitigate these disruptions, governments and firms are increasing capital expenditure on domestic industrial capacity and infrastructure. 4. Consequen
Better placed: domestic industrial manufacturing, industrial automation and robotics, national infrastructure construction, regional logistics and warehousing
More exposed: long-haul global shipping, export-dependent commodity producers, consumer electronics assembly (offshore), globalized just-in-time supply chain managers
Named: INTC, AAPL, CAT, MAERSK-B
What would break this: A sudden global trade agreement or a significant shift in US/UK political leadership toward free-trade neoliberalism would invalidate the reshoring thesis.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
Geopolitical sanctions and trade restrictions drive defense spending and supply chain realignment
1. Targeted trade bans on illegal settlements and sanctioned entities disrupt existing revenue streams for firms operating in those regions. 2. This creates a regulatory vacuum that necessitates 'friend-shoring' or domestic substitution of goods to ensure compliance with international law. 3. Continued military support for Ukraine, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions, sustains long-term demand for defense h
Better placed: defense and aerospace, compliance and risk management software, domestic industrial manufacturing, government intelligence services
More exposed: global shipping and logistics, commodity exporters in sanctioned regions, multinational firms with high exposure to disputed territories
Named: LMT, BA.L, PLTR, MAERSK-B
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic resolution in Ukraine or a shift toward unilateralism/isolationism in Western nations would reduce the demand for both defense spending and coordinated international sanctions.
RBI regulatory tightening and data-driven policy increase financial sector compliance pressure
The RBI's extended directives for co-operative banks indicate a push for higher governance and capital standards, which increases operational costs for smaller lenders while favoring larger, compliant institutions. Active management of state securities and gold bonds suggests tighter control over liquidity and government debt markets. Furthermore, the reliance on qualitative urban/rural surveys implies that monetary
Better placed: large regulated commercial banks, regulatory technology (RegTech) providers, government securities management services
More exposed: co-operative banking sector, small non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), high-leverage credit providers
Named: HDB, SBIN, IBN, YESB
What would break this: If regulatory pressure on co-operative banks triggers a systemic liquidity crisis or if survey data fails to accurately predict inflation trends.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to elevate short-term borrowing costs and pressure NBFCs
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the banking system, reducing the supply of loanable funds. This typically leads to an increase in interbank call money rates. As funding becomes tighter, banks may raise lending rates to maintain net interest margins (NIMs), which increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) that rely on bank credit rather tha
Better placed: short-duration fixed income, high-quality banks with strong deposit franchises, cash-rich corporations
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, banks with high reliance on wholesale funding
Named: HDB, SBIN, BAJAJFIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift toward monetary easing or an unexpected surge in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows could offset the RBI's absorption efforts.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 79% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.7592% is worse than the 0.2772% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.7% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 57% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.4 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.40% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.54% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.04 in-sample / -0.10 OOS, worst -0.10) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.81 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.75 | 0.8h | ELEVATED |
| Monetary Policy | 0.63 | 4.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Geopolitical Tension | 0.60 | 2.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.59 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| M&A | 0.49 | 1.3h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.46 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 454 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,150 |
| Projected close of day | 1,110 |
| Daily average | 1,330 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.91× |
| Total in corpus | 187,505 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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