A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.72% ± 5.27% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.52 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (73.2% posterior, +38.3%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1078%/day and dominates. Net +0.1108%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +10.2 | Information Technology | 71.9 | 1.61 | 60% | Michael Burry Is Staying Short Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla, Warning of a Possible "1987-Type Fall" for AI Stocks. Should Investors Take the Bet Seriously?profitableExtended FWD P/EMean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| HOOD | +5.5 | Financials | 33.2 | 1.97 | 54% | Why Robinhood’s 61% Crypto Volume Increase Matters for the Digital Asset MarketprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| AFRM | +4.3 | Financials | 14.4 | 8.67 | 58% | Goldman Sachs Is Bullish. Here Are 3 Reasons AFRM Stock Could Climb 69%.profitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| UPST | +3.6 | Financials | 7.4 | — | 3% | Could Upstart 10x From Here? The AI Fintech Platform Could Be the Most Misunderstood Stock on the MarketprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
| KFY | +3.2 | Industrials | 12.2 | 0.97 | 65% | Korn Ferry (KFY) Expands Global Standing With AMS AcquisitionprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
NO TRADE: every ranked play has a negative expected net gain after costs in the current regime. The table is a relative ordering, not a buy list.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KFY | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.2); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 2 | UPST | LONG | 43.5% | -0.22 | -0.46 | -1.11 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.6); CIO meta-model current selection |
| 3 | SNOW | LONG | 42.6% | -0.33 | -0.44 | -0.22 | Accelerating velocity +7.6 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 4 | INSP | LONG | 42.6% | -0.33 | -0.44 | -0.22 | Accelerating velocity +5.0 (2 mentions/12h) |
| 5 | MNDY | LONG | 42.0% | -0.45 | -0.46 | -0.03 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 42.5% | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.5); Accelerating velocity +2.2 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
| 7 | AFRM | LONG | 42.9% | -0.29 | -0.45 | -0.50 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.3); Accelerating velocity +11.4 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Expensive PEGY (>2); Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| 8 | PLTR | LONG | 42.5% | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.73 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 10.2); Accelerating velocity +1.8 (4 mentions/12h); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short); Quality: F-score 8/9 |
Engine hit rate 42.4% over 448 scored calls (lower bound 37.9%), average net alpha -0.262%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41The loss of a $53 billion safety net represents a significant removal of liquidity and financial cushioning, exposing the company to competitive pressures and lack of innovation, which the market typically views as a a catastrophic removal of life support rather than a strategic pivot.
2026-08-30 20:02Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | +11.4 | 4 | Goldman Sachs Is Bullish. Here Are 3 Reasons AFRM Stock Could Climb 69%. |
| SNOW | +7.6 | 2 | Snowflake’s Blowout Quarter Adds to a Software Sector Already Rallying on AI |
| INSP | +5.0 | 2 | InvestingPro’s Fair Value spotted 65% gain in Inspire Medical stock |
| HOOD | +2.2 | 2 | Jim Cramer Breaks Down the Generational Shift Driving Robinhood (HOOD) Forward |
| PLTR | +1.8 | 4 | Michael Burry Is Staying Short Nvidia, Palantir, and Tesla, Warning of a Possible "1987-Type Fall" for AI Stocks. Should Investors Take the Bet Seriously? |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| BRZE | -2.3 | Why Braze Stock Plummeted This Week |
| BABA | -1.9 | Alibaba and Amazon Face the Same AI Spending Question: How Quickly Does Capacity Become Cash? |
| REAL | -1.8 | The RealReal (REAL) Posts Record Sales, But The Losses Keep Growing |
| CHWY | -1.8 | JPMorgan Just Downgraded Chewy Stock. Here's Why. |
| IREN | -1.6 | IREN’s $4 Billion ARR Meets a $2.6 Billion Cash-Flow Gap |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +39 | +1,389 | +3,156 | |
| Financials | +134 | +782 | +2,398 | |
| Information Technology | +58 | +573 | +2,193 | |
| Materials | +1 | +79 | +501 | |
| Communication Services | +16 | +72 | +223 | |
| Health Carebreakout | +18 | +21 | +233 | |
| Consumer Staples | -15 | -120 | -434 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +10 | -407 | -644 | |
| Utilities | -72 | -553 | -1,852 | |
| Real Estate | -118 | -909 | -3,658 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -71 | -931 | -2,116 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +101.0 | -43 | |
| Interest Rates | +95.2 | -100 | |
| Market Volatility | +20.8 | -11 | |
| Tariffs | +19.7 | +3 | |
| Cloud Computing | -13.7 | +19 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -14.8 | +235 | |
| Semiconductors | -18.2 | +29 | |
| Oil Prices | -117.7 | +4 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 68% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 0.841% is worse than the 0.3355% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.2% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 55% |
| Variance risk premium | +4.0 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.52% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.39% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.52% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / -0.05 OOS, worst -0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | 0.80 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Inflation | 0.74 | 1.2h | ELEVATED |
| Interest Rates | 0.63 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Stock Market | 0.49 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Supply Chain | 0.48 | 2.2h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.48 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.46 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.45 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 766 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,006 |
| Projected close of day | 896 |
| Daily average | 1,322 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.86× |
| Total in corpus | 192,961 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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