A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.69% ± 5.26% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (75.1% posterior, +38.0%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1093%/day and dominates. Net +0.1113%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | +4.9 | Information Technology | 14.5 | 0.47 | 64% | Seagate Sees Storage Demand Outpacing Supply as AI and Cloud Drive HDD GrowthconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| APO | +3.9 | Financials | 12.0 | 0.47 | 54% | Apollo at Barclays conference: ai financing and private credit pushconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| HOOD | +3.5 | Financials | 33.8 | 1.97 | 56% | Is This Brand New and Wildly Successful Cryptocurrency on Robinhood a Screaming Buy?profitableExtended FWD P/E |
| PLTR | +2.4 | Information Technology | 74.5 | 1.61 | 66% | Palantir, Nvidia, Booz Allen restrict Anthropic and OpenAI modelsprofitableExtended FWD P/E |
| BX | +2.1 | Financials | 17.1 | 1.00 | 30% | Firmus Adds OpenAI. NVIDIA and Blackstone Face Different Sides of the AI Buildoutprofitable |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUM | LONG | 43.4% | +0.73 | +0.59 | +2.03 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership |
| 2 | STX | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 4.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 3 | BX | LONG | 44.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.1) |
| 4 | PLTR | LONG | 44.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 2.4); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E; Quality: F-score 8/9 |
| 5 | APO | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.47 | -0.67 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum |
| 6 | HOOD | LONG | 44.1% | -0.21 | -0.47 | -1.19 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.5); ⚠ Extended FWD P/E |
Engine hit rate 42.6% over 453 scored calls (lower bound 38.1%), average net alpha -0.252%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
None
2026-09-14 17:21A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23A 44% drop following a failed drug trial is a fundamental re-rating of the company's valuation based on lost projected cash flows, not a temporary dip.
2026-09-04 23:49A revenue beat is a backward-looking metric; the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown and the potential obsolescence of traditional RPA in the face of Generative AI.
2026-09-04 15:03Snowflake's 23% surge on AI-fueled guidance raise is a powerful catalyst, but conviction is capped to avoid the 'strategic narrative trap' by accounting for the gap between projected guidance and realized execution.
2026-09-03 14:41Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
No data in this window.
| GEV | -4.1 | GE Vernova Sinks 9% as GLJ Research Starts at Sell With $470 Target; Eaton Drops 7%, Quanta Services Falls 4% |
| COIN | -2.3 | Morgan Stanley likes Coinbase's future, not its stock |
| DOW | -1.1 | Dow Rethinks its $20 Billion Saudi Chemicals Bet |
| HWM | -1.0 | Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Faces New Competitive Pressure after GE’s $11.75 Billion CPP Deal |
| CRCL | -0.9 | Circle (CRCL) Stock Drops 7.5% Despite $400M Tazapay Acquisition for Emerging Markets |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +282 | +1,678 | +3,585 | |
| Financials | +217 | +896 | +2,593 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -234 | +242 | +1,799 | |
| Communication Services | +35 | +114 | +257 | |
| Materials | +37 | +110 | +547 | |
| Health Carebreakout | +67 | +92 | +309 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +36 | -70 | -353 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +42 | -348 | -576 | |
| Utilities | -159 | -670 | -2,026 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -98 | -998 | -2,218 | |
| Real Estate | -221 | -1,046 | -3,917 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +60.3 | -83 | |
| Energy Prices | +27.8 | +26 | |
| Supply Chain | +25.7 | +19 | |
| Geopolitical Conflict | +24.0 | -9 | |
| Treasury Yields | -37.8 | -40 | |
| Semiconductors | -51.7 | -13 | |
| Interest Rates | -173.7 | -374 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | -353.8 | -96 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 65% |
| Macro Factor Gate | UP | 55% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Model failed validation: out-of-sample error 1.0135% is worse than the 0.624% predict-zero baseline. Projection withheld until a weekly retrain produces a model that beats the baseline.
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 11.6% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 59% |
| Variance risk premium | +5.8 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.54% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.45% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.74% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.08 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 0.73 | 1.1h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.72 | 1.0h | ELEVATED |
| Artificial Intelligence | 0.70 | 0.5h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Interest Rates | 0.67 | 0.8h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.62 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| FinTech | 0.54 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.54 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.52 | 0.7h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 156 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,261 |
| Projected close of day | 752 |
| Daily average | 1,323 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 0.93× |
| Total in corpus | 194,497 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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