A real time sentiment feed for equities. Every hour this stock market sentiment dashboard re-reads the entire market feed, scores it, and republishes the result as a plain ticker feed — a stock sentiment tracker covering momentum, sector and theme rotation, market regime and tail risk in one page. No login to read it.
Regime read: LONG · expected +2.67% ± 5.22% over an optimal 30-day hold · signal/noise 0.51 — inside one standard deviation of noise.
Modal state is Bull (77.4% posterior, +37.1%/yr drift), but the direction is the sign of the probability-weighted drift across all states. Bull contributes +0.1098%/day and dominates. Net +0.1118%/day.
Same hours, earlier readings — the fastest way to see whether today is unusual.
| Ticker | Score | Sector | Fwd P/E | PEGY | 52w pos | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC | +8.7 | Industrials | 14.8 | 0.53 | 25% | Amazon takes warrant stake in Generac in $8 billion generator dealconvictionprofitablePEGY < 0.75Fwd P/E < 15 |
| DFIN | +5.2 | Information Technology | 9.0 | 0.97 | 64% | Donnelley Financial (DFIN) Bets AI Translation Powers Its Next Deal BoomprofitableFwd P/E < 15EV/EBITDA < 10 |
| AFRM | +4.9 | Financials | 14.5 | 8.90 | 58% | Affirm stock surges on new AI model for loan approvalsprofitableFwd P/E < 15Expensive PEGY (>2)Mean Reversion: Euphoria (Short) |
| META | +4.3 | Communication Services | 19.3 | 0.87 | 57% | Most Arguments In Favor of Buying Meta Now Miss One Powerful CatalystUNPROFITABLE - elevated risk |
| VG | +3.9 | Energy | 14.7 | 1.41 | 75% | Baker Hughes (BKR) and Venture Global (VG) Team Up for the Next LNG WaveprofitableFwd P/E < 15 |
Score is a decayed sum of scored coverage over the last 24 hours (18-hour half-life). Valuation metrics are point-in-time.
| # | Ticker | Side | P(win) | EV 48h | EV 1w | EV 1m | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRCL | LONG | 44.0% | +0.73 | +0.60 | +2.04 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 2 | SPCX | LONG | 44.0% | +0.73 | +0.60 | +2.04 | Partnership catalyst (82% PM conviction); Asymmetric edge playbook: Partnership; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 3 | CTVA | LONG | 38.6% | +0.06 | -0.53 | +0.71 | Spinoff catalyst (82% PM conviction); ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 4 | VG | LONG | 43.5% | -0.28 | -0.44 | -0.63 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 3.9); Accelerating velocity +6.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 5 | DFIN | LONG | 43.0% | -0.24 | -0.49 | -0.86 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 5.3); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); Accelerating velocity +7.0 (2 mentions/12h); ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; Quality: F-score 7/9 |
| 6 | GNRC | LONG | 43.3% | -0.31 | -0.44 | -0.54 | Hot sentiment (decayed score 8.0); Valuation corroborated (PEGY/fwd-PE/EV checks); High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; Accelerating velocity +11.0 (3 mentions/12h); ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
| 7 | APP | LONG | 42.8% | -0.41 | -0.45 | -0.28 | Despair reversion: sentiment -5 but undervalued; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields; Quality: F-score 9/9 |
| 8 | WAY | LONG | 42.8% | -0.41 | -0.45 | -0.28 | High conviction: undervalued + positive sector momentum; ⚠ Hostile macro: rising dollar + rising yields |
Engine hit rate 42.2% over 474 scored calls (lower bound 37.8%), average net alpha -0.287%. Serving: rules.
A relative ordering produced by the model, not a recommendation. Expected values are net of a 0.15% round-trip cost.
Rocket Lab's capital raise to finalize the acquisition of Iridium is a high-conviction bullish catalyst as it removes the primary execution risk (funding) and confirms the deal's strategic value.
2026-09-17 06:40A $12 billion annual recurring revenue stream from AI hosting is a fundamental shift in revenue profile from lumpy launch services to high-margin recurring AI infrastructure, though execution risk and Capex requirements remain significant.
2026-09-16 19:27The integration of BlackRock, DTCC, and Visa as validators for the Arc Mainnet creates a systemic institutional bridge that transcends routine partnerships, effectively hard-coding Circle into the global financial plumbing.
2026-09-16 15:18The spinoff of the seed business into Vylor creates a pure-play biotech growth vehicle, likely triggering a massive re-rating of the combined enterprise value by eliminating the conglomerate discount.
2026-09-16 01:38A $22B merger between Qorvo and Skyworks is a massive structural shift in the RF semiconductor market, but conviction is tempered by significant antitrust regulatory risk.
2026-09-11 14:33Guidance slash and board review signal systemic operational failure and a loss of management own-ship, which typically outweighs any speculative 'spring-loading' or buyout theories.
2026-09-10 12:43Phase 2 trial results are a primary value driver for biotech stocks; a 30% plunge indicates the market is pricing in a significant impairment of the lead asset's efficacy or safety, which is a correctness-binary outcome with-out a high probability of immediate recovery.
2026-09-09 13:04A Phase 3 primary endpoint miss in a late-stage pipeline asset is a fundamental devaluation event that outweighs the platform-based bull thesis in the short-to-medium term.
2026-09-08 11:19The collapse of a $14.5 billion combination removes a massive valuation floor and exposes the stock to a severe correction as the market prices in the risk of due diligence failure.
2026-09-06 23:23Discrete events extracted from the last 14 days of coverage, with a model conviction score out of 100.
| Ticker | Velocity | Vol | Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC | +15.0 | 4 | Amazon takes warrant stake in Generac in $8 billion generator deal |
| COIN | +10.1 | 5 | Coinbase Has a Bitcoin Problem, and a Potentially Bigger Opportunity |
| DFIN | +7.0 | 2 | Donnelley Financial (DFIN) Bets AI Translation Powers Its Next Deal Boom |
| NBIS | +6.4 | 5 | What's Happening With NBIS Stock? |
| VG | +6.0 | 2 | Baker Hughes (BKR) and Venture Global (VG) Team Up for the Next LNG Wave |
Change in scored coverage over the last 12 hours versus the prior 12.
| CFG | -6.7 | KeyCorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, Walker & Dunlop, and PNC Financial Services Group Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know |
| WD | -6.2 | KeyCorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Citizens Financial Group, Walker & Dunlop, and PNC Financial Services Group Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know |
| CRCL | -4.5 | Why Circle Internet Group Stock Was Crushed Today |
| HOOD | -3.8 | Contemptible, Outrageous, Vile”: Robinhood and AMC Clash Over Who Controls a Stock’s Identity |
| S | -2.9 | Why is SentinelOne stock sliding today? |
Most negatively scored names in the same window.
| Sector | 1W trend | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +164 | +1,566 | +3,963 | |
| Financials | +389 | +1,242 | +3,091 | |
| Health Care | +106 | +369 | +539 | |
| Materials | +86 | +293 | +713 | |
| Communication Services | +50 | +229 | +414 | |
| Consumer Staplesbullish reversal | +87 | +168 | -133 | |
| Industrialsbullish reversal | +106 | +135 | -287 | |
| Information Technologybearish reversal | -77 | -175 | +1,500 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -165 | -902 | -2,409 | |
| Utilities | -277 | -1,092 | -2,570 | |
| Real Estate | -469 | -1,832 | -4,821 |
Net sentiment balance per sector across each lookback window.
| Theme | Velocity | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | +51.7 | -77 | |
| Capital Markets | +46.5 | +60 | |
| Artificial Intelligence | +38.2 | +190 | |
| US Dollar | +28.3 | +32 | |
| Crypto Regulation | -44.0 | -45 | |
| Oil Prices | -91.2 | -18 | |
| Monetary Policy | -111.5 | -165 | |
| Interest Rates | -358.2 | -705 |
Velocity is the rate of change in theme coverage; level is its net sentiment balance.
| Theme | Sources | Conviction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitics | 177 | 70 | |
| defense security | 177 | 63 | |
| infrastructure | 140 | 68 | |
| financial regulation | 131 | 63 | |
| transport mobility | 130 | 62 | |
| trade policy | 114 | 78 | |
| healthcare policy | 111 | 63 | |
| energy policy | 97 | 68 | |
| monetary policy | 91 | 67 | |
| banking | 83 | 63 |
A slower reading than the panels above. Sources counts the documents behind a theme; conviction weighs how many independent sources agree, how recent they are and how strong the signal is. Moves over weeks, not hours.
| Ticker | Company | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 584 |
| Provides AI-driven intelligence and security software used in modern conflict management. data privacy, defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics | ||
| ACN | Accenture | 557 |
| Consults large enterprises on digital transformation to meet new regulatory and reporting standards. banking, defense security, education skills, energy policy | ||
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 539 |
| Aligned with the push for domestic energy stability and modernization. capital markets, climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation | ||
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 386 |
| Leading provider of missile defense and counter-drone technologies for global governments. defense security, financial regulation, geopolitics, technology regulation | ||
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric | 346 |
| Provides energy management and automation for resilient, decarbonized industrial infrastructure. climate policy, energy policy, financial regulation, infrastructure | ||
| SAP | SAP | 343 |
| SAP SuccessFactors and related enterprise systems provide HR, payroll, and workforce-compliance tools for multinational employers. banking, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| CAT | Caterpillar | 343 |
| Manufacturer of heavy equipment for building regional manufacturing facilities in new supply chain hubs agriculture food, climate policy, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
| SIEGY | Siemens | 324 |
| Offers grid technology, rail systems, industrial automation, and infrastructure digitization solutions. energy policy, infrastructure, labor markets, mixed | ||
| HO.PA | Thales | 319 |
| Defense electronics, secure communications, cybersecurity, and surveillance fit stronger coordinated security capacity. defense security, geopolitics, immigration, industrial policy | ||
| DE | Deere & Company | 318 |
| Agricultural equipment demand grows domestically as US farm subsidies expand under protectionist policies. agriculture food, financial regulation, geopolitics, infrastructure | ||
Weight is how prominently a company features across the document corpus, with the reason for its exposure underneath. These are the names that recur in policy and regulatory material, which is a different population from the tickers moving on today's news.
Tighter RBI management may favor regulated intermediaries while pressuring less-compliant NBFCs.
First, large OMO sales and security-switch auctions indicate more active RBI management of government-securities liquidity, issuance, and market structure. Second, this can increase the relative importance of well-capitalized banks, primary-market intermediaries, exchanges, and fixed-income asset managers able to handle changing liquidity and pricing conditions. Third, enforcement actions and voluntary NBFC cancellat
Better placed: large regulated banks, government-securities dealers and fixed-income intermediaries, stock and bond exchanges, fixed-income mutual funds and asset managers
More exposed: smaller or weakly governed NBFCs, highly leveraged shadow-banking models, unregulated or lightly regulated credit intermediaries, duration-sensitive holders exposed to policy-driven bond-market volatility
Named: BSE, SBIN, HDFCBANK, HDFCAMC, M&MFIN
What would break this: The thesis would weaken if OMO sales and security switches prove temporary or have little effect on market pricing; if NBFC enforcement remains isolated rather than systemic; if tighter rules improve funding access for all NBFCs without meaningful cost differences; or if weak credit demand, fiscal d
Geopolitical instability drives shift toward advanced defense and nuclear energy resilience
Escalating regional conflicts increase demand for modernized military hardware, specifically counter-drone systems. The identified existential risks from AI necessitate a pivot toward cybersecurity and AI governance. Simultaneously, the strategic goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2060 creates a long-term structural tailwind for uranium supply chains and next-generation reactor technology. Conversely, systemic instab
Better placed: counter-drone defense, nuclear SMR, uranium mining, cybersecurity
More exposed: global maritime shipping, traditional fossil fuel E&P, international humanitarian aid funding, cross-border consumer discretionary trade
Named: LMT, CCJ, PLTR, MAERSK-B, CRWD
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic resolution to major regional conflicts or a failure to secure funding/regulatory approval for nuclear expansion would invalidate the growth thesis.
Geopolitical volatility and AI asymmetric threats drive defense and cybersecurity spending
Persistent regional conflicts increase demand for conventional munitions and logistics. The 'acceleration gap' in AI adoption by non-state actors forces governments to accelerate procurement of AI-driven counter-terrorism, surveillance, and intelligence tools. Hybrid threats necessitate a shift toward secure communications and cyber-defense infrastructure. Simultaneously, large-scale displacement increases the requir
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, AI-driven intelligence and surveillance, satellite communications
More exposed: regional tourism, commercial aviation (flight path disruptions), just-in-time global supply chains, traditional diplomacy-reliant trade
Named: LMT, PLTR, CRWD, BKNG, RTX
What would break this: A comprehensive global treaty on AI weaponry or a sudden diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would reduce the urgency for rapid defense procurement.
Asymmetric threats drive demand for AI-powered surveillance and autonomous defense systems
Non-state actors are utilizing low-cost, high-impact technologies like drones and AI to bypass traditional security, creating a technological gap. This forces governments to pivot from legacy hardware toward frontier technologies. Persistent regional conflicts act as accelerators, providing real-time data on the efficacy of these asymmetric tools, which in turn necessitates urgent investment in early warning systems,
Better placed: AI-driven surveillance and intelligence, counter-UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems), satellite imagery and GEOINT, critical infrastructure cybersecurity
More exposed: legacy heavy armor platforms, traditional physical border security, conventional non-precision munitions, static perimeter defense hardware
Named: PLTR, AVAV, LMT, CRWD, GD
What would break this: A sudden global shift toward disarmament treaties or the implementation of highly restrictive international AI regulations could slow the procurement of frontier defense technologies.
Routine RBI operations signal monetary stability and predictable credit conditions in India
1. The continuation of standard operational cycles suggests a lack of immediate, disruptive shifts in interest rate policy. 2. Regular government securities auctions ensure consistent funding for public spending and infrastructure projects. 3. Ongoing regulatory oversight reduces systemic risk within the banking sector by maintaining compliance standards. 4. Data-driven inputs from inflation and consumer surveys allo
Better placed: commercial banking, government infrastructure projects, fixed income asset management, corporate credit markets
More exposed: currency speculators, high-volatility short-term debt instruments
Named: HDB, IBKI, SBIN, RELIANCE
What would break this: A sudden shift from routine operations to emergency liquidity injections or unexpected aggressive rate hikes would invalidate the stability thesis.
NATO expansion and global stability efforts drive strategic defense and security spending
1. NATO reinforcements in the High North and Eastern Flank necessitate increased procurement of advanced weaponry, surveillance systems, and military infrastructure to maintain deterrence. 2. The shift toward 'strategic deterrence' favors high-tech defense capabilities including missile defense and cyber warfare tools. 3. UN-led cooperation on climate adaptation and cross-border crime increases demand for specialized
Better placed: aerospace and defense, cybersecurity, satellite communications, military logistics
More exposed: non-aligned arms exporters, traditional diplomatic consulting (shifting to security-led diplomacy), unsecured cross-border trade logistics
Named: LMT, RHM.DE, PLTR, NOC, AIR.PA
What would break this: A sudden diplomatic breakthrough leading to comprehensive disarmament treaties or a significant reduction in NATO funding commitments would invalidate the growth thesis.
RBI regulatory tightening and liquidity drains pressure Indian banking operational margins
1. Increased monetary penalties for non-compliance with customer compensation and credit reporting raise direct operational costs for financial institutions. 2. Stricter loan pricing regulations limit the ability of lenders to aggressively adjust rates, potentially squeezing net interest margins (NIMs). 3. The use of Variable Rate Reverse Repos (VRRRs) and T-Bill auctions removes excess liquidity from the banking sys
Better placed: RegTech software providers, compliance consultancy services, government securities markets
More exposed: retail commercial banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), aggressive consumer credit lenders
Named: TCS.NS, BAJFINANCE.N, HDB, INFY
What would break this: A shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy or a relaxation of compliance timelines would mitigate the pressure on banking margins.
RBI liquidity absorption likely to increase short-term borrowing costs and bond yields
The RBI's use of VRRR auctions removes excess cash from the commercial banking system. This reduction in available liquidity typically puts upward pressure on overnight interbank call rates. As banks have less surplus capital to deploy, demand for government securities (G-Secs) may soften, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices. Consequently, entities relying on short-term wholesale funding or bank credit fac
Better placed: short-term money market funds, banks with high CASA ratios, floating rate debt instruments
More exposed: non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), highly leveraged corporate borrowers, long-duration government bond holders
Named: HDB, BAJAJFIN, LICI, SBIN
What would break this: A sudden surge in government spending or a massive influx of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) could offset the VRRR absorption, maintaining liquidity levels.
Readings drawn from the document corpus, not from price action. Each carries the case against it, because a view without a stated way to be wrong is not worth much. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
| Model | Vote | Trust |
|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime Engine | UP | 60% |
Consensus: BULLISH
Weekly index projection: +3.08% (80% band -4.28% to +7.09%).
Votes are weighted by each model's realised hit rate and suspended when it falls below its baseline.
| Forecast volatility | 12.0% ann. |
| Percentile vs 6 months | 61% |
| Variance risk premium | +3.5 |
| Daily VaR (5%) | -1.54% |
| Weekly VaR (5%) | -3.43% |
| Weekly expected shortfall | -5.66% |
Premium in normal range — ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE: the HAR fit (R²=0.05 in-sample / 0.10 OOS, worst 0.05) explains almost none of realized vol, so the forecast leg of this premium is weak
HAR realised-volatility forecast with a generalised Pareto tail fit.
| Theme | Branching | Half-life | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 0.79 | 0.7h | ELEVATED |
| Oil & Gas | 0.66 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Inflation | 0.65 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Crypto & Digital Assets | 0.62 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Semiconductors | 0.58 | 1.1h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Capital Markets | 0.56 | 0.9h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Supply Chain | 0.47 | 1.0h | SUBCRITICAL |
| Cloud & Data Centers | 0.43 | 0.6h | SUBCRITICAL |
Self-excitation of coverage per theme. A branching ratio near 1 means each story is spawning roughly one more.
| Scored today | 770 |
| Yesterday, same hour | 1,456 |
| Projected close of day | 1,667 |
| Daily average | 1,326 |
| Flow ratio vs normal | 1.24× |
| Total in corpus | 197,639 |
Volume of scored market coverage. Ratios below 1 mean a quiet tape.
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